Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
