Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
